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Since 2010 average new well EUR has been increasing, but note that when we normalize for increasing lateral length, the productivity growth stopped in 2018 and may be decreasing slightly, unfortunately I do not have access to average lateral length data so I rely on occasional updates at shaleprofile.com. Data for these well profiles can be found here.
When we look carefully at the USGS assessments we can consider the various benches and which are the most productive volumes of rock. Of the 50.4 million net acres in the USGS mean estimate, roughly 31.4 million net acres have more prospective (higher EUR per acre) volume. These 31.4 million net acres have a UTRR of 52 Gb, when we add the 5 Gb that is likely to be produced from wells completed through June 2017, the TRR becomes 57 Gb, that leaves another 18 Gb of TRR to potentially be produced from the remaining 19 million acres, if half of this can be produced profitably that would bring the total ERR to about 66 Gb. The forecast by Saputra et al (2022) has an ERR estimate of 55 to 62 Gb somewhat lower than my estimate. Note that Saputra assumes a completion rate scenario of 400 wells per month, for my scenarios assuming the mean USGS TRR and 400 well per month completion rates at both high and low oil price scenarios, the average ERR is about 51 Gb. My guess is the completion rate will increase in the future to at least 600 wells per month where the average ERR of the low and high oil price scenarios is about 67 Gb or possibly to 800 wells per month where the ERR of the low and high oil price scenarios is 73 Gb. The low completion rate scenarios will leave a lot of oil in the ground if oil prices start to fall around 2036 to 2042 as in my oil price scenarios.
Switching back to my original high oil price scenario and considering the 75 Gb TRR and 600 well completion rate scenario and using the economic assumptions given earlier in the post, I can show cumulative net revenue basin wide from Jan 2010 to Dec 2035. Well cost is assumed to increase from $7.5 million in Jan 2010 (2020$) to $10.5 million in August 2017 and then remain at that level until September 2021, then real well cost(2020$) is assumed to increase at 1% annually, and increase of 3.5% at an annual inflation rate of 2.5%. Debt can be fully paid back by early 2025 under these assumptions and cumulative net revenue builds to about $750 billion (in 2020$) by 2036, this does not include money that could be earned on this pile cash if it were invested. Note that by some estimates drilling and completion costs per lateral foot have been falling in most tight oil basins. I assume no change in lateral length or well design after Dec 2020, so I would any cost increases long term would be marginal, close to the rate of inflation (so no change in real cost in constant dollars). The estimate below is conservative.
My mean TRR scenario (75 Gb) has at most 182 thousand wells. Much will depend on the future price of oil. If the mean TRR scenario is roughly correct, the ERR is likely to be at least 50 Gb, at minimum in a very low oil price scenario the ERR might be as low as 40 Gb, but this is not very likely unless WW3 is around the corner. Hopefully communication between the US and Russia will remain open.
Thank you for putting so much mental effort into this project Dennis. Truly impressive.Of course no one knows what specific assumptions to make on all this, and the fact that you are the first to acknowledge these uncertainties is appreciated and is due respect.
And the news is that the Antonov 225, Mira, heavy lift aircraft has been destroyed, while Hostamel a/p was under attack.This is a great loss for the international engineering community. Capable of single lifts of 150t, it carried large generator and other massive components across the world.Why was it parked in the Ukraine, ffs Ok, maybe laid up for essential maintenance. Even so, every effort should have been made to get it elsewhere a few weeks ago.A great loss, imo.
Ron, you are full of emotions, and they will never give an objective picture. I do not know a single person who was killed by Putin or on his orders. But I know in Donetsk a monument to the dead children of Donbass. The Ukrainian military and nationalists have been shelling Donetsk with mortars and heavy guns for 8 years. In total, 13 thousand people died there, including 149 children. Their names are carved on a granite slab: 153554b96e
https://www.islandskin808.com/forum/general-discussions/crack-multipsk-422rar